Global steel prices may rise a tad as market faces negative sentiments, rising Chinese exports

Global steel prices will likely rise only moderately from current levels for the remainder of 2025 as the market continues to face negative sentiments, rising Chinese exports and trade uncertainty due to US trade tariffs.

“We maintain our 2025 global average steel price forecast at $630/tonne... That said, for the year, we expect prices to rise slightly higher as US prices potentially receive support from protectionist measures under Donald Trump, offsetting bearish pressure from lacklustre Mainland Chinese demand,” said research agency BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions.

During May-end, the year-to-date global average for longs and flats steel was $597/tonne, up from $592 as of February 26. Prices have remained on a downward trend since the start of 2024 across major markets. 

Flat output :

However, the World Bank said in its Commodities Outlook that China’s struggling property sector and weak industrial activity in major economies are expected to keep the demand subdued throughout the forecast period for iron ore, the main raw material for steel. This outlook holds good for steel also.

The Australian Office of the Chief Economist (AOCE) said the production is expected to be flat in 2025 and then slowly pick up over the five-year outlook period, reaching just under 2 billion tonnes by 2030. 

The AOCE said the expected growth in global steel production could be met using existing production capacity. “Global crude steelmaking capacity exceeded global steel production by over 600 million tonnes in 2024,” it said. 

US investment banker JP Morgan has lowered its production forecast for steel by 2 per cent, given the quicker-than-expected peak and demand destruction concerns looking ahead.