JPMorgan sees gold price at $4,000 by Q2 2026

JPMorgan sees gold prices hitting the $4,000-per-ounce milestone by the second quarter of 2026 as the probability of a recession rises amid an ongoing global trade war.

“Underpinning our forecast for gold prices heading towards $4,000/oz. next year is continued strong investor and central bank gold demand averaging around 710 tonnes a quarter on net this year,” the bank wrote in a note Tuesday.

Before reaching that milestone, JPMorgan analysts expect gold prices to average $3,675/oz. by the fourth quarter of 2025.

The bank added that there is a possibility of an earlier overshoot of these forecasts, should demand surpass its expectations.

JPMorgan’s bullish forecast came on the same day that spot gold touched the $3,500/oz. mark for the first time as investors sought safety in the metal amid uncertainty over the US economy and its currency.

Since then, gold’s rally has taken a breather. By 10:45 a.m. ET Wednesday, the yellow metal declined 3% to $3,285.28/oz., as the equities market recovered after US President Donald Trump appeared to soften his stance on tariffs.

Still, bullion has gained nearly 30% so far this year — making it one of the best performing assets — while recording as many as 28 all-time highs along the way.

Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs also placed a $4,000/oz. target for next year, while upgrading its end-2025 price forecast to $3,700/oz. The bank also noted that in “extreme tail scenarios,” bullion could plausibly trade near $4,500/oz. by year end.

Bearish case

In its note, JPMorgan also presented a bearish case where an unexpected drop off in central bank demand occurs.

“More materially bearish would be a scenario where US economic growth remains extremely resilient to tariffs allowing the Fed to turn much more proactive in fighting inflation risks, prompting markets to price in hikes even before worrying inflation actually arrives,” its analysts wrote.