Lithium’s $100B question: Who will build 134 new mines?

Global lithium demand is expected to more than triple by 2050, requiring the equivalent of 134 new mines and more than $100 billion in investment as electric vehicle adoption accelerates, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.

The London-based research firm forecasts consumption will climb to nearly 7 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) by mid-century from 2.11 million tonnes this year. At an average production capacity of 36,000 tonnes annually, the additional supply would require the equivalent of one new mine every two months over the next 24 years.

“The biggest challenge is sustaining that investment through price cycles, while competing for capital with AI, defence and the wider energy transition,” Cameron Perks, Benchmark’s product director for lithium, said in a statement.

The forecast highlights the scale of the mining industry’s challenge as governments push to electrify transportation and develop domestic battery supply chains. Financing constraints, lengthy permitting processes and competition for investment could complicate efforts to bring enough production online, particularly in Western markets seeking to reduce dependence on China.

Electric vehicles are expected to account for 76% of lithium demand by 2050, compared with 55% today. Batteries already represent 92% of consumption, up from about 70% in 2020.

Demand from stationary energy storage has expanded by more than 60% annually over the past two years, although Benchmark expects growth to moderate to roughly 5% a year through the end of the decade.

Supply shifts

Australia, the world’s largest lithium mining jurisdiction, is expected to account for 29% of global mined supply this year, but its share could decline to 20% by 2050 as existing operations deplete and competing regions expand production.

The projection includes major brownfield developments such as PLS’s P2000 expansion, expected to begin around 2030.

“Many of Australia’s mines will be depleting by 2050. Price volatility has made financiers hesitant, and the regulatory burden is growing,” Perks said. “It’s not too late, but if Australia doesn’t back growth, other regions will take that share.”

China is expected to maintain roughly a quarter of global mined production, supported by continued investment in domestic resources and its established position in the battery supply chain.

North America, meanwhile, could increase its share of mined lithium output to 13% by 2050 from just 1.7% this year. The region’s portion of global lithium demand from battery cell manufacturing is forecast to double to 12% over the same period.

Europe faces a similar supply challenge. Although the continent accounts for 7% of lithium demand from cell production, it contributes less than 1% of mined supply. Benchmark expects European mining output to reach 5.5% of the global total by 2050, still below its projected 8% share of cell manufacturing demand.

Developing new mines in both regions will be difficult, however, because some promising deposits require unproven technologies or face environmental and community opposition.

“These aren’t insurmountable, but they create significant delays, and they mean mines built in these regions simply cost more,” Perks said.

Recycling uncertainty

Benchmark’s outlook could prove conservative if government policies supporting electric vehicles and energy storage drive stronger-than-expected consumption.

Under its upside scenario, lithium demand could approach 9 million tonnes LCE by 2050, requiring the equivalent of approximately 180 new mines and more than $150 billion in investment.

Recycling offers the largest potential offset to new mining requirements. Benchmark expects recovered material to account for almost half of lithium supply by mid-century, although that projection depends on sufficient volumes of used batteries becoming available and recycling remaining commercially competitive.

Its capital expenditure analysis, which assumes recycling meets a substantial portion of future demand, estimates that approximately $64 billion will be needed to satisfy lithium requirements through 2040.

The timing of battery retirements remains a major uncertainty because materials cannot be recovered until batteries reach the end of their useful lives.

“Recycling will grow, but our base case asks a lot of it,” Perks said. “It’s limited by how quickly batteries reach end of life, and it still needs to compete with mines on cost. Every tonne that recycling doesn’t deliver has to come from a mine.”

The industry’s ability to finance new projects through volatile commodity cycles, while scaling up recycling capacity, will ultimately determine whether production can keep pace with the energy transition.