Steel profits set to rise in June quarter, but non-ferrous players feel the heat

Steel companies are expected to post a strong set of numbers for the April-June quarter of 2025-26 (FY26), helped by better prices and lower input costs.

Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) for the sector is projected to rise 4%-15% sequentially, driven by a ?2,000–2,500 per tonne increase in domestic steel prices and a $10–$12 per tonne decline in coking coal costs.

That said, higher iron ore prices and lower volumes may take some sheen off. Sales volumes are expected to fall 3%–17% quarter-on-quarter, mainly due to planned maintenance shutdowns, weak export demand, and the early onset of the monsoon, which disrupted dispatches. Despite this, all major steelmakers are expected to see an improvement in EBITDA per tonne. Tata SteelIndia is likely to report EBITDA of around ?14,500 per tonne, while its European business may narrow losses to $28 per tonne, from around $40 in the previous quarter. Jindal Steel & Power(JSPL) is expected to see a healthy rise, with EBITDA per tonne estimated at ?13,850.JSW Steel'snumber is likely to come in at ?10,820, whileSAILcould report a more modest uptick, with ebitda per tonne moving closer to ?8,000.

which had a weak March quarter, is poised for a 10% sequential improvement in consolidated EBITDA per tonne, taking it to around ?18,200. The recovery is backed by better realisations and lower production costs.

The picture looks more muted for the non-ferrous segment, as lower global prices weigh on performance. Aluminium and zinc prices of London Metal Exchange (LME) have declined about 7% sequentially, dragging down both revenue and profitability.

Silver is a bright spot in the non-ferrous space, with prices up 5%-6% and hitting their highest levels in over a decade.

Among the large non-ferrous players,Coal Indiais expected to report a 20% decline in EBITDA, hurt by lower volumes, weaker pricing, reduced e-auction realisations, and rising production costs. NMDCmay post a 5% EBITDA growth, supported by a mid-teens volume increase. However, this benefit will be partially eroded by higher production costs and weaker per-tonne realisations.

Hindalco's India operations are expected to be impacted by falling aluminium prices and rising production costs. Its overseas subsidiary Novelis may see a 9% sequential decline in EBITDA per tonne to around $450, due to tariff-related headwinds and higher input costs associated with Canadian imports into the US

Vedantais expected to report a consolidated EBITDA decline, weighed down by falling aluminium and zinc prices—both down nearly 7%. However, gains from lower alumina costs and increased captive sourcing may cushion part of the impact.